An interesting discussion took place in Orleans recently that focuses on a situation that affects all Cape towns, including Chatham.

Can the aging of the Cape be reversed?

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Peter Francese, director of demographic forecasts, was a speaker at an education forum at Nauset Regional Middle School.

Can the migration of families off-Cape be stopped? The downward trend in the number of Chatham studends is least a decade-old --30% in ten years.

Chatham is among the forefront of Cape towns that now have more homes than people, due to the rise of second home owners, many of whom are looking to retirement in Chatham, thus adding to the aging population.

Also, Chatham is expensive. Market prices of Chatham homes tend to be higher and Chatham town spending is high, leading to a steady increase in property taxes.

Employment opportunities have to be available for working families. It is not evidence of a productive economy when government is one of the biggest employers in a town.

Demographer says Cape's future depends on young

By Susan Milton
smilton@capecodonline.com
June 26, 2009 6:00 AM

ORLEANS — Jennifer Rabold and her husband could work and live anywhere in the world with their backgrounds in technology and education and two young sons.

They live in Brewster, examples of the young professionals that the Cape must attract and keep in order to survive economically and culturally, demographer Peter Francese said yesterday.

But they may leave, as many have, unless Cape towns and taxpayers try to reverse the Cape's aging trends by offering innovative schools, day care, job and business opportunities and family-friendly housing and zoning.

Retirees already outnumber schoolchildren on the Cape by a 2-1 ratio, a trend that worries Rabold.

"I love the Cape and I want to stay here,'" she said at a forum on the future of the schools in the eight towns, Harwich to Provincetown, on the Lower and Outer Cape. "But will you make the changes. Is there the public will?'

There's a very good reason for taxpayers to make the political and financial changes, Francese said, when asked how to overcome local resistance from voters.

"If you don't care, your property will be worth half in 10 years," he predicted.

When young parents leave, they take their kids. Schools shrink and close. More jobs disappear and the Cape's economic stability starts to teeter and then, he said, "the people who vacation here will start to look for a more attractive place to go."

Francese delivered his forecasts about the Cape's demographic past, present and possible future to about 70 people, primarily school and town officials, at Nauset Regional Middle School in Orleans.

The population of the eight towns, 49,000, has hardly changed since 2000, yet the number of homes has risen 8 percent, about 3,600 units, thanks to an influx of second-home and retirement-home buyers.

Five towns — Chatham, Eastham, Provincetown, Wellfleet and Truro — have more dwellings than people, "and I don't think I've ever seen that anywhere else," he said.

The schools in the eight towns have lost more than 1,000 students since 2000 while school costs have risen by 32 percent.

At the same time, schools must prepare students to "participate and prosper in an economy completely unlike what we grew up in," he said.

Yesterday participants brainstormed about how to alter the Cape's demographic fate and already saw some progress.

To attract young professionals and entrepreneurs, a shore-to-shore wireless broadband network is in the works. And Cape schools are already highly ranked in educational test scores, Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce executive director Wendy Northcross said, which should be a draw for parents.

Schools such as Truro draw widespread support because the school is already a community hub, open 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. for pre-school, adult education and recreation, Superintendent-principal Brian Davis said.

Florida and New Hampshire attract older residents with lower property taxes, Francese said, and the Cape can woo young people by changing attitudes and public policy.

North Carolina's zoning allows housing on small lots and offers activities that are fun, he said, adding, "When you have town boards that say, 'No nightclubs, no late night venues for coffee or other drinks,' you're telling young people that you are not welcome here."